Saturday, April 17, 2010

Tiger Woods' Major Way


US MASTERS - AUGUSTA

Latest current odds: 5/2
Sky Bet's odds to miss cut: 12/1

 

Tiger's record: Four wins, twice a runner-up, not outside the top six in the last five years at Augusta.

 

Summary: It's true that Woods has favourite courses on which he's enjoyed huge success. But there are favourites and there are favourites. For example, in his last 9 starts at Firestone, he's won an amazing 7 times. At Bay Hill, 6 wins in his last 10 visits including the last two. Augusta may still be lazily touted as Woods' playground but the bottom line is that in his last seven Masters starts he's won just once. Hardly an era of dominance is it. With it being his first major since all hell broke loose in his private life there will be massive focus on Woods so all in all I'd be looking to oppose him at that price. As for the 12/1 about missing the cut? A worst finish of 22nd in the 13 times he's played there as a pro suggests it's one to swerve at this stage.

 

Verdict: Top five but doesn't win.

 

US OPEN - PEBBLE BEACH

Latest current odds: 5/2
Sky Bet's odds to miss cut: 10/1

 

Tiger's record: Three US Open wins (including 15-shot win at Pebble in 2000), twice a runner-up. Also won AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am in 2000.

 

Verdict: It's still hard to fathom how any player could win a major by 15 shots but Tiger did just that at Pebble in 2000 while he produced a different kind of magic - coming back from seven behind with seven to play - to win the US Tour event at the same venue earlier that year. Since blitzing the field by 15, Woods has proved mortal in two subsequent visits to Pebble, finishing 13th in 2001 and 12th in 2002 in the regular US Tour event played there. However, Woods has never enjoyed the bumpy poa annua greens at Pebble in early season and that's why he's kept the event off his schedule since 2002. June is a different matter though and he was ranked T6th in putting when lapping the field in 2000 (he also hit seven more greens than anyone else). Currently Woods is the same price to win at Pebble as he is to win at Augusta. I much prefer to back him here.

 

Verdict: Wins

 

OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP - ST ANDREWS

Latest current odds: 9/4
Sky Bet's odds to miss cut: 16/1

 

Tiger's record: Three Open wins and two in two as a pro at St Andrews. Missed the cut at Turnberry in 2009.

 

Summary: "There are some courses you feel comfortable on. This is one of them. I enjoy the lines - they fit my eye." That was Woods after winning by five at St Andrews at 2005, five years after he'd crushed the field by eight at the Home of Golf in 2000. Take a look at the last seven Open winners at St Andrews - Nicklaus, Nicklaus, Ballesteros, Faldo, Daly, Woods, Woods - and it's pretty obvious that the cream rises to the top there. Tiger has the perfect blend of skills and strategy to flourish at the Old Course and, if he can rise above and keep away from the grilling he'll get from the British tabloids, a third Open triumph at St Andrews beckons.

 

Verdict: Wins

 

US PGA Championship - Whistling Straits

Latest current odds: 11/4
Sky Bet's odds to miss cut: 12/1

 

Tiger's record: Four wins and two second places in the year's final major but down the field in tied 24th at Whistling Straits in 2004.

 

Summary: Tiger's modest finish at Whistling Straits in 2004 needs some context. It came at the end of a poor two-year run in the majors which saw him finish 15th, 20th, 39th, 22nd, 17th and 24th in the six US-based majors across 2003 and 2004. At Whistling Straits he was poor off the tee (52nd for fairways hit) and uninspired on the greens (47th). "I feel like I had about 200 putts this week," said Woods later although he actually took 119. With such little evidence to go on it's hard to form too strong an opinion on his chances here and much will depend on how he's performed at Pebble and St Andrews. Gut instinct says he's vulnerable here.

 

Verdict: Creeps into top five after slow start.

 

While the carefully cultivated image of Tiger Woods the person continues to unravel as he makes front-page news around the world and becomes the butt of jokes, the reputation of Tiger Woods the golfer remains untouched.

 

But for how long?

 

By pulling out of the Chevron World Challenge last week, Woods denied us a first chance of seeing whether there will be a direct correlation between turmoil in his private life and performance on the course.

 

But although the off-season break means he's able to lie low for now, it's only seven weeks to go before the US Tour pitches up at Torrey Pines - the traditional starting point of Tiger's season.

 

This week Sky Bet released prices on how Woods the golfer would perform next year while several other bookies have a list of 2010 Tiger specials.

 

So, with a focus on the majors, we take a look at Tiger's hopes of making it a year to remember - on the course, at least.

 

What will be in Golf when Tiger Woods Retreats

Steve Williams: I have no Knowledge of Tiger’s Affair

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